What better way to follow up a post involving the acronym RIP than to write about murder? Consider the Venn diagram below. The blue circle is the likelihood that I’ll be murdered. The orange circle is the likelihood that I’ll become a serial killer.

That I’ve made each circle the same size is purely for aesthetics and is not a reflection of the relevant statistics. While on the topic of appearance, the orange and blue color scheme was chosen for the visually assertive quality typical of complimentary color pairs. The black which denotes the overlap was a substitution for what would probably be a displeasing bile-brown.

An intuitive cornerstone of probability is that the likelihood an event will occur decreases for each additional criteria necessary to define the event. This truth is illustrated in the Venn diagram, where the overlap of the two circles, which represents both criteria being met, is smaller than each of the individual criteria circles. I don’t want to be murdered. My risk of being murdered is greatly reduced if I become a serial killer.

One may rightly question the validity of this model and ask “isn’t a serial killer more likely than an average member of the general population to be murdered, since their intended victims will presumably act in self-defense?” I would attempt to address this legitimate query by proposing the following subjective qualifier: serial killers are murderers who, when engaged in their illicit behaviors, take measures to ensure that they are never at a greater risk of being murdered than an average member of the general population.

If someone were seriously considering becoming a serial killer, isn’t writing about it in their blog one of the stupidest and most easily avoidable self-incriminating things they could do? Well, not necessarily. It depends on how sophisticated the investigators are willing to believe the suspect to be. The almost inconceivable idea that blog entries concerning illegal activity were not the creative outlet of a harmless individual but rather the self-documentation of a real criminal is itself material for a defense attorney. Then again, prosecutors might argue that using such an argument as a defense had always been the original intent of this person sitting here before you who deserves to go to jail. Pretty soon, the whole affair becomes very reminiscent of that scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail with the guy having to decide from which goblet to drink to avoid being poisoned, and the endless circular logic that that entailed, and all for naught!

There is a gaping hole in this whole business, however. Being murdered is largely up to chance, whereas becoming a serial killer is a choice; two vastly different categories. Putting these incompatible criteria together on the same Venn diagram doubtless breaks countless rules and makes the pioneers of probability theory turn over in their graves. RIP indeed.